Investor confidence drops to pandemic levels amid global uncertainty and slow economic recovery

Confidence among New Zealand investors has dipped to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic as a flat housing market, sharemarket volatility and global uncertainty weigh on views about returns for the coming year.

The latest ASB Investor Confidence Survey shows nett investor confidence – the difference between those that think investment returns will improve versus worsen in the coming year – has fallen from 9% in Q1 to only 1% for the three months to June.

Sentiment fell across all regions in the first half of the year, with the lower North Island experiencing the biggest drop from nett 12% in the three months to January to -6% this quarter – an 18% decline. Aucklanders were the most positive, with nett 10% expecting returns to improve in the coming year.

ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown says the survey reflects a range of global and domestic pressures.

“It’s been a challenging six months, with markets affected by uncertainty around tariffs and global issues, alongside concerns at home, such as the housing market which hasn’t bounced back the way people expected it to. This has led to a more pessimistic tone in overall investor confidence, which seems to be suffering from the same weak sentiment we’re seeing in consumer confidence.

Sentiment is the weakest in the lower North Island, and in contrast, in Auckland the mood is more positive, even though the region faces some of the same challenges.”

The survey shows general confidence is highest among those under 39-years-old, with those over 60 the least optimistic. Chris says this in part a reflection of where the different age demographics tend to hold their assets and where they are in the investment life cycle.

Of those surveyed, 51% said they were very concerned about the impact of global political instability or uncertainty on investments. 47% felt this way about international geopolitical tension and conflict and 43% about international trade policies, including tariffs. Half of those that had concerns had made, or considered making, changes to their investments as a result.

“These global issues were really impacting many investments around April in a negative way, but subsequently markets have improved a lot and are now knocking around record highs in the case of the US share market.  Understandably, global issues are still weighing on Kiwi investors’ minds and there is still a lot of uncertainty both here and abroad. However, it was pleasing to see confidence in managed investments lift over the quarter, although confidence in KiwiSaver did ease within the survey when investors were asked which investment they expect to provide the best return.

“Volatility in investment markets is always a challenge. The ups and downs of investment values can help investors understand their tolerance for taking risks, and ability to ride out negative periods in financial markets. The second quarter highlighted the importance of sticking with long-term strategies and savings goals, rather than chopping and changing to try and time markets,” concludes Chris.

ASB reports covering a range of commentary can be accessed at our ASB Economic Insights page: https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/economic-insights.html