Fonterra Milk Price Forecast and Financial Results Update: Treading carefully

  • Fonterra announced an appropriately wide 2020/21 opening milk price forecast range of $5.40-$6.90/kg. We expect $6.50/kg, albeit with some downside risk to our forecast.
  • Unsurprisingly, Fonterra reduced its 2019/20 forecast range to $7.10-$7.30/kg.  We expect something in the midpoint of that range.
  • Fonterra announced ecnouraging third quarter results, but it will be sometime before Fonterra undoes the damage of past poor performance.

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Nathan Penny

Senior Rural Economist

Nathan's bold predictions and his ability to call it as he sees it sets him apart from other New Zealand rural economists.  In particular, his controversial, but ultimately successful $6.00/kg MS 2016/17 milk price forecast is case in point.

He has a natural talent to distil complex issues and translate them into user-friendly formats for diverse groups, including farmers and financial markets participants.  Nathan brings unique perspectives and thought leadership to the country's rural and broader export sectors.  

Nathan joined ASB as the Rural Economist in 2013, having cut his teeth at the New Zealand Treasury.  He hails from the Kapiti Coast and studied at Massey University where he graduated with a Master of Applied Economics.

Nathan's expertise lie in dairy and other commodity markets, trade economics and economic forecasting.  He's a leading GlobalDairyTrade auction and NZX dairy derivatives commentator and he also authors ASB's monthly rural publication, Farmshed Economics.  

He's a proud Hurricanes and Wellington Phoenix fan, and will gladly discuss at length the Hurricanes Super Rugby 2016 victory.

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