Home Economics: Upcycling

  • We’ve upped the amount of ‘cycle’ in our house price inflation forecasts: more this year, less next.
  • The recent COVID outbreak means a chunk of activity will get postponed, rather than cancelled. But we don’t think this will have a lasting impact on the house price outlook, assuming the lockdown is brief. 
  • Higher mortgage rates are a gamechanger. But most of the house price impact will occur next year. We haven’t materially changed our mortgage rate forecasts despite the RBNZ’s August pause. 


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Nick Tuffley

ASB Chief Economist

Since starting out in 1997 as an economist, it's fair to say Nick has seen a few hair-raising moments over the years, including the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis.

One of Nick's strengths is his ability to communicate complex ideas in a readily understandable and entertaining way.  He thrives on helping people understand the economic environment to help enrich the quality of their business or personal life. He’s proud to lead a team that has won two Forecast Accuracy Awards from Consensus Economics, and has a strong track record with their Official Cash Rate and dairy price forecasts. 

Nick grew up in Christchurch and graduated with a Master of Commerce degree from the University of Canterbury.  He learned his economic ropes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before a long stint as a Senior Economist at Westpac, and joined ASB as Chief Economist in 2007.