Home Economics: Upcycling
- We’ve upped the amount of ‘cycle’ in our house price inflation forecasts: more this year, less next.
- The recent COVID outbreak means a chunk of activity will get postponed, rather than cancelled. But we don’t think this will have a lasting impact on the house price outlook, assuming the lockdown is brief.
- Higher mortgage rates are a gamechanger. But most of the house price impact will occur next year. We haven’t materially changed our mortgage rate forecasts despite the RBNZ’s August pause.
Contact us
Nick Tuffley
ASB Chief Economist
Since starting out in 1997 as an economist, it's fair to say Nick has seen a few hair-raising moments over the years, including the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis.
One of Nick's strengths is his ability to communicate complex ideas in a readily understandable and entertaining way. He thrives on helping people understand the economic environment to help enrich the quality of their business or personal life. He’s proud to lead a team that has won two Forecast Accuracy Awards from Consensus Economics, and has a strong track record with their Official Cash Rate and dairy price forecasts.
Nick grew up in Christchurch and graduated with a Master of Commerce degree from the University of Canterbury. He learned his economic ropes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before a long stint as a Senior Economist at Westpac, and joined ASB as Chief Economist in 2007.
- Email: Nick
