Home Economics: Doom or Boom? A post-lockdown housing stocktake

  • Recent housing commentary appears to encapsulate everything from doom to boom. We stocktake the post-lockdown state of house prices, rents, turnover, and inventory to try and provide some clarity.
  • We’re left happy occupying the less pessimistic end of the house price forecasting spectrum. In fact, if anything the recent run of data and anecdotes have come in on the stronger side of our view. Still, it’s early days and we suspect pent-up demand will fade in coming months.
  • Our overall view remains unchanged. We continue to expect a modest 6% fall in NZ national house prices.

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Nick Tuffley

ASB Chief Economist

Since starting out in 1997 as an economist, it's fair to say Nick has seen a few hair-raising moments over the years, including the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis.

One of Nick's strengths is his ability to communicate complex ideas in a readily understandable and entertaining way.  He thrives on helping people understand the economic environment to help enrich the quality of their business or personal life. He’s proud to lead a team that has won two Forecast Accuracy Awards from Consensus Economics, and has a strong track record with their Official Cash Rate and dairy price forecasts. 

Nick grew up in Christchurch and graduated with a Master of Commerce degree from the University of Canterbury.  He learned his economic ropes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before a long stint as a Senior Economist at Westpac, and joined ASB as Chief Economist in 2007.