Home Economics: Bracing for spring growth

  • We expect nation-wide house price inflation to pick up from the current annual pace of around 1.5%, to 5-6% by mid next year. Spring will be a key test of our view.  
  • The RBNZ’s determination to get kiwis borrowing and spending could see a more enduring cycle take hold. But we think there are enough offsetting factors out there to limit the extent of the upturn.
  • July housing data were consistent with the idea that the housing market may be slowly turning higher. Although, as our Regional Heatmap shows, conditions remain highly variable across the country.

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Mike Jones

Senior Economist

Mike joined ASB in 2019 armed with almost 15 years of experience in applied macroeconomic and financial markets analysis.

Mike's career has been all about distilling the risks and opportunities of economic and financial market trends for business. Basically asking the "what does it all mean" question. Mike's enthusiasm and skill for drawing out practical, commercial insights from the murky world of economics has been honed over a relatively broad base of experience.

After spending the early part of his career on the tools at the Reserve Banks of both NZ and Australia, Mike had a lengthy stint at BNZ where he was NZ’s top-ranked currency strategist. His regular and topical macro research also saw him pick up several FX forecast accuracy gongs from Bloomberg.

Drawn in by the prospect of putting strategy into practice, Mike moved from Wellington to Auckland in 2013 to join Fonterra as GM Treasury Risk Management. In this role, Mike lead Fonterra’s macroeconomic research output, and was responsible for the strategy and execution of Fonterra’s foreign exchange, debt, and interest rate hedging programmes.