RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged, but surprised slightly with its view that recent events have a neutral impact on the outlook.
We continue to expect the OCR to lift in late 2018, which is still a ‘considerable’ time away.
The RBNZ shows an interesting illustration of the nature of uncertainties influencing the US at present.
Originally hailing from sunny Nelson, Jane moved to Auckland to join the ASB team in 2008. As Senior Economist, Jane's main focus is co-ordinating the team’s macro-economic forecasts. In this key role, Jane was thrilled by the team’s twice consecutive win of the Consensus Economics Forecast Accuracy award.
During her decade-long career in economic forecasting, Jane has gained a thorough knowledge of the New Zealand economy. Her current focus is on New Zealand GDP growth, including both manufacturing and the construction sectors. She has spent time forecasting most sectors of the economy, including inflation, trade, housing, labour and financial markets.
Prior to joining ASB, Jane honed her macro-economic forecasting skills at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Jane is a qualified scarfie, attending Otago University and graduating with a Bachelor of Commerce in Economics with 1st class honours. In 2014, she took a career break from ASB to travel the world and learn to snowboard.
Nathan's bold predictions and his ability to call it as he sees it sets him apart from other New Zealand rural economists. In particular, his controversial, but ultimately successful $6.00/kg MS 2016/17 milk price forecast is case in point.
He has a natural talent to distil complex issues and translate them into user-friendly formats for diverse groups, including farmers and financial markets participants. Nathan brings unique perspectives and thought leadership to the country's rural and broader export sectors.
Nathan joined ASB as the Rural Economist in 2013, having cut his teeth at the New Zealand Treasury. He hails from the Kapiti Coast and studied at Massey University where he graduated with a Master of Applied Economics.
Nathan's expertise lie in dairy and other commodity markets, trade economics and economic forecasting. He's a leading GlobalDairyTrade auction and NZX dairy derivatives commentator and he also authors ASB's monthly rural publication, Farmshed Economics.
He's a proud Hurricanes and Wellington Phoenix fan, and will gladly discuss at length the Hurricanes Super Rugby 2016 victory.
Kim focuses on the subjects that have the ability to impact most people daily - the housing market, mortgage interest rates and inflation. She forecasts, analyses and provides insight into what these topics mean to readers: the pros and cons for particular mortgage rate options, housing affordability, or how to prepare for inflation. Kim is the author for ASB's Home Loan Rate Report, Home Economics and Housing Confidence Survey.
Kim joined ASB in early 2015 after working as an Economic Consultant. She also interned with the New Zealand Treasury while completing her BA/BCom (1st class honours) in Economics, Statistics and Politics.
Daniel has the knack of turning what may appear as a block of random numbers into a story, be it trends in migration and tourism, to consumer spending patterns. In addition to telling the story behind the numbers, Daniel has an ability to estimate what the next economic chapter may be and who stands to gain and lose from it.
He joined ASB after moving to New Zealand from London, where he spent five years analysing Latin American economies for Informa Global Markets. Although New Zealand and South America may appear as quite different economies, there are a surprising number of similarities. Countries such as Chile, Peru and Colombia are small, open economies with free-floating exchange rates, a strong commodity export focus and inflation-targeting central banks, while also dealing with the impact of much larger regional neighbours.
Daniel has also worked in foreign exchange markets for a number of years, including time spent with ABN AMRO and Lloyds Bank. He is the author of a number of ASB reports, including the NZD Barometer and Markets Monthly. When he’s not working, Daniel can often be found running, cycling or swimming along the seafront, a novelty after living in London.