Preview of the RBNZ May Monetary Policy Statement: Pick your poison
- We expect the RBNZ to hold the OCR at 2.25%. The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to have a variety of views on the outlook, and we would not be surprised if a split vote or dissented consensus takes place
- The OCR needs to go higher, but timing it is hard. Valid arguments could be made to begin hikes in May, July or September. We do not rule out a hike next week, but data on the run-up to May have been mixed and not sparked added urgency. We still believe July is the sweet spot for allowing enough time to watch and wait but not letting inflation get away on the RBNZ
- The OCR track will be lifted relative to the February MPS, but the end point of the OCR is unlikely to meet aggressive market pricing. We retain our call for a July start for OCR hikes, with a steady pace of normalisation to a 3.25% OCR end point but must stress the uncertainty this view is held in
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Nick Tuffley
ASB Chief Economist
Since starting out in 1997 as an economist, it's fair to say Nick has seen a few hair-raising moments over the years, including the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis.
One of Nick's strengths is his ability to communicate complex ideas in a readily understandable and entertaining way. He thrives on helping people understand the economic environment to help enrich the quality of their business or personal life. He’s proud to lead a team that has won two Forecast Accuracy Awards from Consensus Economics, and has a strong track record with their Official Cash Rate and dairy price forecasts.
Nick grew up in Christchurch and graduated with a Master of Commerce degree from the University of Canterbury. He learned his economic ropes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before a long stint as a Senior Economist at Westpac, and joined ASB as Chief Economist in 2007.
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Mark Smith
Senior Economist
Mark joined ASB in 2017, with over 20 years of public and private sector experience working as an economist in New Zealand and the UK.
His resume includes lengthy stints at ANZ and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and he has also worked at the Bank of England, HM Treasury and the New Zealand Transport Agency. Mark's areas of specialisation include interest rate strategy, macro-economic analysis and urban economics.
Born and bred in the Waikato, Mark studied at Waikato University where he graduated with a Master of Social Sciences, majoring in Economics.
Mark's key strengths are the ability to use his extensive experience, inquisitive nature, analytical ability, creativity and pragmatism to dig a little deeper and to deliver common sense solutions to tackle complex problems.
When not at work Mark likes to travel, keep fit and spend time with his friends and family.
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Yen Nguyen
Economist
Yen Nguyen joined ASB Bank in June 2024, bringing over 10 years of experience as a policy analyst in the Vietnamese government. Her expertise lies in macroeconomic and policy analysis, with a strong focus on economic strategy and regulatory frameworks.
Yen grew up in Hanoi, Vietnam and holds a Master’s Degree in International Studies from Korea University (Seoul) and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Auckland. Her current focus is on New Zealand’s housing market and regional development, delivering clear, practical insights to help New Zealanders understand market trends, and the economic factors influencing their communities.
Yen is passionate about applying her skills to address real-world economic challenges and supporting sustainable development.
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Wesley Tanuvasa
Economist
Wesley Tanuvasa joined ASB in February 2025.
He was previously in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's forecasting team as a sector analyst for GDP and the labour market. He also worked in the prudential policy team, focusing on improving capital and solvency requirements for New Zealand banks.
Beyond the Reserve Bank, Wesley's experience includes roles in wealth management research and corporate advisory at Jarden and Astris Advisory Tokyo, as well as trade policy implementation at the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Wesley holds a Master of Commerce, majoring in Finance and International Business from the Victoria University of Wellington. He is a current CFA I candidate.
Wesley's current focuses include analysis on economic growth and opportunities to bolster New Zealand's productivity.
- Email: Wesley