Economic Note: Confidence firm, inflation measures finally lift

The NZIER Q4 Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed business confidence held up better than we had expected.  Business confidence remained steady while own activity expectations eased slightly.   In contrast, the ANZ monthly survey reported a more substantial fall in confidence and own-activity expectations over the quarter.  Some moderation in confidence is not surprising, given the unexpected outcome of the US presidential election and the Kaikoura earthquakes.

Meanwhile, labour market indicators remain tight and inflation indicators moved in the right direction from the RBNZ’s perspective.  There are no implications to our OCR view; we continue to expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR on hold at 1.75% for the foreseeable future.