Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion - June 2026: Confidence lifts alongside prices
- The NZIER survey saw a lift in business confidence in Q2, likely driven by an easing in fuel costs in late June/early July. Firm’s own trading activity was little changed in Q2, suggesting economic activity wasn’t as adversely impacted by the initial surge in oil prices as initially feared
- Pricing intentions jumped again, with a net 41% of respondents lifting prices in the last three months – the highest level since September 2023, pointing to above target inflation. Costs also rose
- Q2 QSBO figures point to a more resilient economy than initially feared. If maintained this suggests that economic momentum can reassert itself in H2 2026. However, it also shows that firms are managing to pass some costs on. While uncertainty remains elevated, the safest path for the RBNZ right now is the one back to neutral
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Nick Tuffley
ASB Chief Economist
Since starting out in 1997 as an economist, it's fair to say Nick has seen a few hair-raising moments over the years, including the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis.
One of Nick's strengths is his ability to communicate complex ideas in a readily understandable and entertaining way. He thrives on helping people understand the economic environment to help enrich the quality of their business or personal life. He’s proud to lead a team that has won two Forecast Accuracy Awards from Consensus Economics, and has a strong track record with their Official Cash Rate and dairy price forecasts.
Nick grew up in Christchurch and graduated with a Master of Commerce degree from the University of Canterbury. He learned his economic ropes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before a long stint as a Senior Economist at Westpac, and joined ASB as Chief Economist in 2007.
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Email: Nick
Mark Smith
Senior Economist
Mark joined ASB in 2017, with over 20 years of public and private sector experience working as an economist in New Zealand and the UK.
His resume includes lengthy stints at ANZ and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and he has also worked at the Bank of England, HM Treasury and the New Zealand Transport Agency. Mark's areas of specialisation include interest rate strategy, macro-economic analysis and urban economics.
Born and bred in the Waikato, Mark studied at Waikato University where he graduated with a Master of Social Sciences, majoring in Economics.
Mark's key strengths are the ability to use his extensive experience, inquisitive nature, analytical ability, creativity and pragmatism to dig a little deeper and to deliver common sense solutions to tackle complex problems.
When not at work Mark likes to travel, keep fit and spend time with his friends and family.
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Yen Nguyen
Economist
Yen Nguyen joined ASB Bank in June 2024, bringing over 10 years of experience as a policy analyst in the Vietnamese government. Her expertise lies in macroeconomic and policy analysis, with a strong focus on economic strategy and regulatory frameworks.
Yen grew up in Hanoi, Vietnam and holds a Master’s Degree in International Studies from Korea University (Seoul) and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Auckland. Her current focus is on New Zealand’s housing market and regional development, delivering clear, practical insights to help New Zealanders understand market trends, and the economic factors influencing their communities.
Yen is passionate about applying her skills to address real-world economic challenges and supporting sustainable development.
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Email: Yen
Wesley Tanuvasa
Economist
Wesley Tanuvasa joined ASB in February 2025.
He was previously in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's forecasting team as a sector analyst for GDP and the labour market. He also worked in the prudential policy team, focusing on improving capital and solvency requirements for New Zealand banks.
Beyond the Reserve Bank, Wesley's experience includes roles in wealth management research and corporate advisory at Jarden and Astris Advisory Tokyo, as well as trade policy implementation at the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Wesley holds a Master of Commerce, majoring in Finance and International Business from the Victoria University of Wellington. He is a current CFA I candidate.
Wesley's current focuses include analysis on economic growth and opportunities to bolster New Zealand's productivity.
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Email: Wesley