Daily Alert: RBNZ to Trump RBA with a 50bp cut today
- Yesterday saw a hawkish cut by the RBA, who start their cutting cycle with a 25bp cut to the cash rate (to 4.10%), but with the RBA Board “cautious on prospects for further easing”.
- UK yields and sterling jumps on strong UK labour market figures, with firmer than expected Canadian inflation supporting yields and triggering a paring back on central bank rate cut pricing. Fed officials continue to show little urgency to lower the fed funds rate. US markets returned from their long weekend with modest moves in US equity indices and with higher US Treasury yields
- NZ looks to remain out on a limb, with a 50bp OCR widely expected today from the RBNZ. The focus of today’s RBNZ OCR decision will be on the forward guidance and published rate track. We expect a total of 100bps of OCR cuts over 2025 but note that the economic and policy outlook is fluid with both upside and downside risks
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Mark Smith
Senior Economist
Mark joined ASB in 2017, with over 20 years of public and private sector experience working as an economist in New Zealand and the UK.
His resume includes lengthy stints at ANZ and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and he has also worked at the Bank of England, HM Treasury and the New Zealand Transport Agency. Mark's areas of specialisation include interest rate strategy, macro-economic analysis and urban economics.
Born and bred in the Waikato, Mark studied at Waikato University where he graduated with a Master of Social Sciences, majoring in Economics.
Mark's key strengths are the ability to use his extensive experience, inquisitive nature, analytical ability, creativity and pragmatism to dig a little deeper and to deliver common sense solutions to tackle complex problems.
When not at work Mark likes to travel, keep fit and spend time with his friends and family.
- Email: Mark
Chris Tennent-Brown
ASB Wealth Senior Economist
Chris has worked as an economist for ASB and Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney since 2005. His work has involved monitoring and forecasting trends in the New Zealand economy, with a focus on drawing implications for financial markets and investments. Chris is passionate about savings issues, and much of his current work is focussed on broadening peoples understanding of investments. Chris obtained a Bachelor of Commerce at Auckland University, majoring in Economics, and prior to joining ASB worked in the funds management industry for Bankers Trust and BT Funds Management. With over 20 years' experience in finance, Chris has also spent several years farming, and was a New Zealand representative cyclist. When not at work, Chris likes to travel, cycle, and spend time with his family and numerous pets.
- Email: Chris