October Wrap Up - Buy umbrellas when it's sunny
One of the keys to investment success is having a clear, long-term investment process. For us, that is centred on starting with a base portfolio that will deliver an optimal combination of risk and return for differing investor types, from conservative to aggressive, in “normal” environments. Of course, normal never exists. That's why we take an active approach to asset allocation, varying the portfolio's exposure to different asset classes depending on economic and market conditions. We do this with a medium-term, three-to-five-year focus, considering both the risks present in the world and where we see opportunities. It's not the only thing we do to protect and grow your wealth. From time to time, shorter-term risks may arise that need to be managed. We aim to recognise these risks early and layer protection into portfolios at reasonable prices. It's like buying umbrellas when it's sunny rather than waiting for the storm. Reducing our exposure to gold and adding downside US share market protection are live examples of this in our portfolios today.
Glittering a little too brightly
Every asset in your portfolio is there to do a job. For shares it is providing access to long-term economic growth and the shareholder value creation that companies deliver. For fixed income it's income that we receive and the fact that it tends to do well when shares struggle, reducing overall portfolio risk and providing downside protection.
We also have an allocation to gold in the portfolio. This has been a feature of ASB portfolios for about three years. Our thesis for gold was that it would behave a little like fixed income, providing steady returns and downside protection should growth assets, like shares, sell off. Gold also played into our geopolitical fragmentation megatrend; in times of global stress it tends to be a safe haven asset.
This thesis has been right and wrong. Right in the sense that until very recently gold has performed admirably as a defensive asset providing protection during periods of instability. One tick for gold.
What has been unexpected is the massive rally in gold prices. Over the past three years gold has returned circa 35% p.a. In the year to date it is up a whopping 52%.
Herein lies the rub. Gold fever has increasingly taken over. This has meant gold is beginning to behave less like a defensive asset and more like a growth asset, rising on those strong 'risk on' days, where investors favour higher-risk investments as market conditions appear favourable, and selling off when investors are more cautious. Gold is not doing exactly the job we bought it for. One cross for gold.
For us if an asset isn't likely to do its job for the portfolio, then it's time to reduce our exposure. We did this for gold over the month reducing gold's weight in the portfolio from 2% to 1%. This is a great example of how we manage shorter-term risks in the portfolio.
Buying those umbrellas
While not as spectacular as the rally in gold, share prices in the United States are up strongly over the past three years, rising 22% (as measured by the MSCI World Index (USD)). As is well documented, this has been underpinned by strong performance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and technology shares. The poster child of this has been the phenomenal performance of Nvidia, the supplier of the silicon chips driving today's large language models. Nvidia shares are up 49% over the past year, 143% p.a. over the past three years.
While we are long-term bullish about the transformative nature of artificial intelligence this has been increasingly recognised by the market. Prices and valuations of companies in the AI space have risen steeply. This may present a near-term risk to the portfolio.
At the same time, the price of buying options to protect downside risk in the portfolio hasn't risen materially. This presents an opportunity to, at least a little, have our cake and eat it too. With a short-term option strategy in place, we can still participate in the performance of these shares but have some protection, mitigating risk, should prices fall.
This is another example of where we can undertake shorter-term positions to manage overall portfolio risk and help protect and grow your wealth.