Quarterly Economic Forecasts: Experiencing the hangover

  • In our last quarterly, published at the end of last year, we flagged that we were expecting the economy would fall into a recession over 2023.  The reported contraction in December 2022 quarterly GDP suggests the economy is buckling a little earlier than expected
  • We expect that in total the economy will contract upwards of 2% by early 2024, more than half the size of the 2008/09 decline
  • Inflation is expected to remain persistently high and is unlikely to fall below 3% until 2025

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Nick Tuffley

ASB Chief Economist

Since starting out in 1997 as an economist, it's fair to say Nick has seen a few hair-raising moments over the years, including the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis.

One of Nick's strengths is his ability to communicate complex ideas in a readily understandable and entertaining way.  He thrives on helping people understand the economic environment to help enrich the quality of their business or personal life. He’s proud to lead a team that has won two Forecast Accuracy Awards from Consensus Economics, and has a strong track record with their Official Cash Rate and dairy price forecasts. 

Nick grew up in Christchurch and graduated with a Master of Commerce degree from the University of Canterbury.  He learned his economic ropes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before a long stint as a Senior Economist at Westpac, and joined ASB as Chief Economist in 2007.

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