ASB Housing Confidence: Price expectations diverging as market turns

  • House price expectations build on last quarter’s survey, with net price expectations now sitting at the highest level in almost two and a half years.  That’s just before the housing market downturn began
  • Fewer respondents are expecting interest rate increases, an ongoing trend.  However, more respondents still expect higher rather than lower interest rates on balance.  This suggests New Zealanders are braced for the high interest rate environment to continue
  • Meanwhile, respondents are firmly on the fence as to whether now’s a good time to be buying a house.  We acknowledge that there are quite a few conflicting signals for prospective buyers: a turning market, policy changes, high debt servicing costs, possible debt-to-income restrictions and upfront affordability constraints

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Nick Tuffley

ASB Chief Economist

Since starting out in 1997 as an economist, it's fair to say Nick has seen a few hair-raising moments over the years, including the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis.

One of Nick's strengths is his ability to communicate complex ideas in a readily understandable and entertaining way.  He thrives on helping people understand the economic environment to help enrich the quality of their business or personal life. He’s proud to lead a team that has won two Forecast Accuracy Awards from Consensus Economics, and has a strong track record with their Official Cash Rate and dairy price forecasts. 

Nick grew up in Christchurch and graduated with a Master of Commerce degree from the University of Canterbury.  He learned his economic ropes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before a long stint as a Senior Economist at Westpac, and joined ASB as Chief Economist in 2007.

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