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Home Loan Rate Report: Could this be the low point for mortgage rates?

  • At this juncture we think most mortgage interest rates won’t move much lower than they are now. Furthermore, there is now some upward pressure on fixed mortgage interest rates, coming courtesy of: the upward drift in global interest rates; markets recalibrating expectations for the RBNZ; and as regulatory changes take effect.
  • Borrowers can lock in very low interest rates now, but should still plan to deal with higher interest rate costs over the long run.
  • The RBNZ has surprised markets a couple of times recently.  In August it cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by a bigger than expected 0.5% to a record low 1.0%.  Since then it has maintained that developments do not warrant more policy stimulus despite slowing domestic and global growth.  We thought the RBNZ would lower the OCR again in November, and think RBNZ will cut the OCR one more time in 2020.

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Chris Tennent-Brown

ASB Wealth Senior Economist

Chris has worked as an economist for ASB and Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney since 2005. His work has involved monitoring and forecasting trends in the New Zealand economy, with a focus on drawing implications for financial markets and investments. Chris is passionate about savings issues, and much of his current work is focussed on broadening peoples understanding of investments. Chris obtained a Bachelor of Commence at Auckland University, majoring in Economics, and prior to joining ASB worked in the funds management industry for Bankers Trust and BT Funds Management. With over 20 years' experience in finance, Chris has also spent several years farming, and was a New Zealand representative cyclist. When not at work, Chris likes to travel, cycle, and spend time with his family and numerous pets.

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