Home Loan Rate Report: Are we there yet?

  • The resilience of the local economy over the second half of 2020, and the prospects of more improvement over 2021, impacts our outlook for interest rates, including mortgages.  Our forecasts suggest we could be at, or near the low-point for mortgage rates.
  • Taking advantage of the lower rates on offer now, combined with our expectations that mortgage rates will only rise slowly over the years ahead, influences our thoughts on mortgage strategies. Fixing and then rolling fixed-term mortgages is forecast to be the cheapest option over a 5-year time horizon.
  • Borrowers are prudent to plan to deal with higher interest rate costs over the long run, rather than budget on rates remaining this low indefinitely. And for those who want interest rate certainty now, the cost of fixing for longer terms, at below 3%, is very low compared to the past.

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Chris Tennent-Brown

ASB Wealth Senior Economist

Chris has worked as an economist for ASB and Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney since 2005. His work has involved monitoring and forecasting trends in the New Zealand economy, with a focus on drawing implications for financial markets and investments. Chris is passionate about savings issues, and much of his current work is focussed on broadening peoples understanding of investments. Chris obtained a Bachelor of Commerce at Auckland University, majoring in Economics, and prior to joining ASB worked in the funds management industry for Bankers Trust and BT Funds Management. With over 20 years' experience in finance, Chris has also spent several years farming, and was a New Zealand representative cyclist. When not at work, Chris likes to travel, cycle, and spend time with his family and numerous pets.

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