Home Loan Rate Report: A bird in the hand or two in the bush?

  • Borrowers can lock in very low interest rates now, but should still plan to deal with higher interest rate costs over the long run.
  • Since August, the RBNZ has maintained that developments do not warrant more policy stimulus despite slowing domestic and global growth. We still think RBNZ will cut the OCR again in the future. 
  • But if the floor in the OCR is 1.00%, mortgage interest rates are unlikely to move much lower than they are now. There is now some upward pressure on mortgage interest rates, given the upward drift in global interest rates, as markets recalibrate expectations for the RBNZ, and as pending regulatory changes take effect.


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Chris Tennent-Brown

ASB Wealth Senior Economist

Chris has worked as an economist for ASB and Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney since 2005. His work has involved monitoring and forecasting trends in the New Zealand economy, with a focus on drawing implications for financial markets and investments. Chris is passionate about savings issues, and much of his current work is focussed on broadening peoples understanding of investments. Chris obtained a Bachelor of Commerce at Auckland University, majoring in Economics, and prior to joining ASB worked in the funds management industry for Bankers Trust and BT Funds Management. With over 20 years' experience in finance, Chris has also spent several years farming, and was a New Zealand representative cyclist. When not at work, Chris likes to travel, cycle, and spend time with his family and numerous pets.

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