Home Loan Rate Report: A balanced approach

  • We expect floating and short-term fixed mortgage interest rates to remain around current levels for the rest of 2018, with rates to drift up prior to RBNZ hikes from August 2019.
  • The tick-shaped mortgage borrowing curve and our expectations of a mild RBNZ tightening cycle suggest that the 1 to 2-year part of the mortgage curve should continue to offer good value.
  • There is the risk that mortgage interest rates move up more quickly and significantly than what our forecasts currently assume.  Borrowers who place a high premium on certainty and stability may want to consider fixing a portion of their loan for longer terms.

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Chris Tennent-Brown

ASB Wealth Senior Economist

Chris has worked as an economist for ASB and Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney since 2005. His work has involved monitoring and forecasting trends in the New Zealand economy, with a focus on drawing implications for financial markets and investments. Chris is passionate about savings issues, and much of his current work is focussed on broadening peoples understanding of investments. Chris obtained a Bachelor of Commerce at Auckland University, majoring in Economics, and prior to joining ASB worked in the funds management industry for Bankers Trust and BT Funds Management. With over 20 years' experience in finance, Chris has also spent several years farming, and was a New Zealand representative cyclist. When not at work, Chris likes to travel, cycle, and spend time with his family and numerous pets.

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