Home Economics: Housing shortage sustaining house price momentum

  • Blink and you would’ve missed it. The housing “correction” is behind us.
  • A more severe housing shortage, a less gloomy outlook for the labour market, and the RBNZ’s effective “green light” for asset price cycles all promise to keep house prices rising at a rapid clip over the coming 12 months. Flat-lining net migration and some roll-back of policy support will slow rather than stall the market next year.
  • We have materially upgraded our forecasts. We now expect annual house price inflation of 9% by year end, and have flipped the small negative we had in for June 2021 to an 11% positive annual increase.

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Nick Tuffley

ASB Chief Economist

Since starting out in 1997 as an economist, it's fair to say Nick has seen a few hair-raising moments over the years, including the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis.

One of Nick's strengths is his ability to communicate complex ideas in a readily understandable and entertaining way.  He thrives on helping people understand the economic environment to help enrich the quality of their business or personal life. He’s proud to lead a team that has won two Forecast Accuracy Awards from Consensus Economics, and has a strong track record with their Official Cash Rate and dairy price forecasts. 

Nick grew up in Christchurch and graduated with a Master of Commerce degree from the University of Canterbury.  He learned his economic ropes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before a long stint as a Senior Economist at Westpac, and joined ASB as Chief Economist in 2007.