Home Economics: Bracing for Impact

  • House prices are falling but the bulk of the impact from the mortgage rate surge is yet to come
  • Faster and larger lifts in mortgage rates mean we now expect modest house price declines through to mid-2023. All told, we expect around a 12% decline. In real terms though, this would amount to a 20% correction
  • We expect a house price inflation recovery to kick in over the second half of 2023, tied to our forecasts for an upturn in net migration and flattening mortgage rates

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Nick Tuffley

ASB Chief Economist

Since starting out in 1997 as an economist, it's fair to say Nick has seen a few hair-raising moments over the years, including the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis.

One of Nick's strengths is his ability to communicate complex ideas in a readily understandable and entertaining way.  He thrives on helping people understand the economic environment to help enrich the quality of their business or personal life. He’s proud to lead a team that has won two Forecast Accuracy Awards from Consensus Economics, and has a strong track record with their Official Cash Rate and dairy price forecasts. 

Nick grew up in Christchurch and graduated with a Master of Commerce degree from the University of Canterbury.  He learned his economic ropes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before a long stint as a Senior Economist at Westpac, and joined ASB as Chief Economist in 2007.