Economic Weekly: The right policy tool at the right time
- We are living in dynamic and chaotic period, which could result in a global downturn as the impact of higher US tariffs bite. Sanguine global equity markets look to be largely ignoring this, with the assumption that central banks will come to the rescue if need be
- Despite 225bps of OCR cuts, there have been mixed signs that the NZ economy is responding. Annual CPI inflation is likely to push towards (and potentially top) 3% by Q3 and concern over the inflation outlook could limit the extent of future easing
- The NZ economy needs a policy nudge to reduce excess capacity, and lowering the OCR looks to be the prudent move. We expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR by 25bps as it transitions from tapping the monetary policy brakes to the pressing the accelerator. How much lower than 3% the OCR will need to go will depend on the economic outlook
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Mark Smith
Senior Economist
Mark joined ASB in 2017, with over 20 years of public and private sector experience working as an economist in New Zealand and the UK.
His resume includes lengthy stints at ANZ and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and he has also worked at the Bank of England, HM Treasury and the New Zealand Transport Agency. Mark's areas of specialisation include interest rate strategy, macro-economic analysis and urban economics.
Born and bred in the Waikato, Mark studied at Waikato University where he graduated with a Master of Social Sciences, majoring in Economics.
Mark's key strengths are the ability to use his extensive experience, inquisitive nature, analytical ability, creativity and pragmatism to dig a little deeper and to deliver common sense solutions to tackle complex problems.
When not at work Mark likes to travel, keep fit and spend time with his friends and family.
- Email: Mark