Economic Weekly: Ready. Set. GO

  • On Wednesday, we expect the Reserve Bank to respond to sustained inflationary pressure and the hot labour market with a 25bps OCR hike to 0.50%
  • We expect that move to kick off a tightening cycle that will see the OCR reach 1% by the end of the year.
  • While it’s certainly conceivable the Bank might need to perform a U-turn – particularly in the event of a Sydney-style delta variant outbreak – we think the risks are skewed towards both a faster pace and greater scale of OCR hikes than our core forecasts imply.



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Mark Smith

Senior Economist

Mark joined ASB in 2017, with over 20 years of public and private sector experience working as an economist in New Zealand and the UK.

His resume includes lengthy stints at ANZ and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and he has also worked at the Bank of England, HM Treasury and the New Zealand Transport Agency. Mark's areas of specialisation include interest rate strategy, macro-economic analysis and urban economics.

Born and bred in the Waikato, Mark studied at Waikato University where he graduated with a Master of Social Sciences, majoring in Economics.

Mark's key strengths are the ability to use his extensive experience, inquisitive nature, analytical ability, creativity and pragmatism to dig a little deeper and to deliver common sense solutions to tackle complex problems.

When not at work Mark likes to travel, keep fit and spend time with his friends and family.