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Monthly CPI data – June 2024: Inflation on cooling trajectory despite June lift

  • Our monthly add-up shows that consumer prices rose just 0.1% in June. This was slightly weaker than we had expected
  • Underlying pricing pressures look extremely soft, with prices essentially flat in Q2
  • Annual CPI inflation remains well on track to fall below 3% in the second half of 2024, and we are increasingly confident it will settle in the 1-3% inflation target range. We expect a 25bp OCR cut in November, but the softness of the pricing side data heightens the risk of RBNZ cuts coming sooner and being larger over 2024 than previously thought

 

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Nick Tuffley

ASB Chief Economist

Since starting out in 1997 as an economist, it's fair to say Nick has seen a few hair-raising moments over the years, including the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis.

One of Nick's strengths is his ability to communicate complex ideas in a readily understandable and entertaining way.  He thrives on helping people understand the economic environment to help enrich the quality of their business or personal life. He’s proud to lead a team that has won two Forecast Accuracy Awards from Consensus Economics, and has a strong track record with their Official Cash Rate and dairy price forecasts. 

Nick grew up in Christchurch and graduated with a Master of Commerce degree from the University of Canterbury.  He learned his economic ropes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before a long stint as a Senior Economist at Westpac, and joined ASB as Chief Economist in 2007.

Mark Smith

Senior Economist

Mark joined ASB in 2017, with over 20 years of public and private sector experience working as an economist in New Zealand and the UK.

His resume includes lengthy stints at ANZ and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and he has also worked at the Bank of England, HM Treasury and the New Zealand Transport Agency. Mark's areas of specialisation include interest rate strategy, macro-economic analysis and urban economics.

Born and bred in the Waikato, Mark studied at Waikato University where he graduated with a Master of Social Sciences, majoring in Economics.

Mark's key strengths are the ability to use his extensive experience, inquisitive nature, analytical ability, creativity and pragmatism to dig a little deeper and to deliver common sense solutions to tackle complex problems.

When not at work Mark likes to travel, keep fit and spend time with his friends and family.

Yen Nguyen

Economist

Yen Nguyen joined ASB Bank in June 2024, bringing over 10 years of experience as a policy analyst in the Vietnamese government. Her expertise lies in macroeconomic and policy analysis, with a strong focus on economic strategy and regulatory frameworks.

Yen grew up in Hanoi, Vietnam and holds a Master’s Degree in International Studies from Korea University (Seoul) and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Auckland. Her current focus is on New Zealand’s housing market and regional development, delivering clear, practical insights to help New Zealanders understand market trends, and the economic factors influencing their communities.

Yen is passionate about applying her skills to address real-world economic challenges and supporting sustainable development.