Q2 2021 GDP Review: Strong NZ growth momentum prior to lockdown

  • NZ real GDP expanded at a robust 2.8% qoq pace over Q2, confirming the NZ economy had considerable momentum prior to the more recent community COVID-19 outbreak. There were positive revisions to the level of GDP, with the magnitude of the 2020 Q2 dip and Q3 rebound revised a touch lower.
  • The Q2 figures look increasingly dated given more recent events. The most recent lockdown is set to add further volatility to GDP figures through the remainder of the year. Uncertainty is high, but we expect the sharp Q3 dip to be short-lived and followed by a strong Q4 rebound.
  • We expect the RBNZ to ‘look through’ near-term volatility and reduce monetary stimulus, with a series of 25bp hikes starting from next month. We envisage a gradual path of OCR hikes and a low 1.50% OCR endpoint.


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Nick Tuffley

ASB Chief Economist

Since starting out in 1997 as an economist, it's fair to say Nick has seen a few hair-raising moments over the years, including the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis.

One of Nick's strengths is his ability to communicate complex ideas in a readily understandable and entertaining way.  He thrives on helping people understand the economic environment to help enrich the quality of their business or personal life. He’s proud to lead a team that has won two Forecast Accuracy Awards from Consensus Economics, and has a strong track record with their Official Cash Rate and dairy price forecasts. 

Nick grew up in Christchurch and graduated with a Master of Commerce degree from the University of Canterbury.  He learned his economic ropes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before a long stint as a Senior Economist at Westpac, and joined ASB as Chief Economist in 2007.

Mark Smith

Senior Economist

Mark joined ASB in 2017, with over 20 years of public and private sector experience working as an economist in New Zealand and the UK.

His resume includes lengthy stints at ANZ and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and he has also worked at the Bank of England, HM Treasury and the New Zealand Transport Agency. Mark's areas of specialisation include interest rate strategy, macro-economic analysis and urban economics.

Born and bred in the Waikato, Mark studied at Waikato University where he graduated with a Master of Social Sciences, majoring in Economics.

Mark's key strengths are the ability to use his extensive experience, inquisitive nature, analytical ability, creativity and pragmatism to dig a little deeper and to deliver common sense solutions to tackle complex problems.

When not at work Mark likes to travel, keep fit and spend time with his friends and family.