Full Credit: The lowdown on NZ credit conditions

  • Base rates are still biased higher, but with the RBNZ tightening cycle now well priced, the upside to shorter dated swap yields is much reduced relative to last year
  • We see modest upside pressure on credit margins this year. Central banks globally are winding back market support, inflation is back, and volatility is elevated. Bank funding costs are also grinding higher and expected to continue to do so
  • Still, this is more a normalisation from very tight levels than a material uptrend. Favourable issuance conditions are expected to remain in place in corporate DCM markets

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Mike Jones

Senior Economist

Mike joined ASB in 2019 armed with almost 15 years of experience in applied macroeconomic and financial markets analysis.

Mike's career has been all about distilling the risks and opportunities of economic and financial market trends for business. Basically asking the "what does it all mean" question. Mike's enthusiasm and skill for drawing out practical, commercial insights from the murky world of economics has been honed over a relatively broad base of experience.

After spending the early part of his career on the tools at the Reserve Banks of both NZ and Australia, Mike had a lengthy stint at BNZ where he was NZ’s top-ranked currency strategist. His regular and topical macro research also saw him pick up several FX forecast accuracy gongs from Bloomberg.

Drawn in by the prospect of putting strategy into practice, Mike moved from Wellington to Auckland in 2013 to join Fonterra as GM Treasury Risk Management. In this role, Mike lead Fonterra’s macroeconomic research output, and was responsible for the strategy and execution of Fonterra’s foreign exchange, debt, and interest rate hedging programmes.


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