Trade Disruptions Update
<p>In our latest Trade Disruptions update, we’ve made ten predictions for 2023, with the USA and China geopolitical tensions underpinning many disruptions to global trade.</p>
<p>With global inflation, tight labour markets and wars persisting, there will be a slowdown in global trade growth, even to the extent that it will be lower than global economic growth. This will impact the cost of trading for Kiwi businesses with sluggish supply chains and costlier commodities driven by labour unrest.</p>
<p>However, the large number of importers and exporters surveyed were fairly consistent, noting access and reliability of global freight has dramatically improved. While they see rates rapidly dropping globally, the rate of change in NZ is slower.</p>
<p>ASB Trade Consultant, Paul Gestro, noted: "Encouragingly, we spoke with many importers and exporters who were more upbeat than in previous iterations of our Trade Disruption series.</p>
<p>"A few also noted that packaging, another cost that accelerated when supply chains were severely disrupted has dropped dramatically.</p>
<p>"However any significant revenue and operational gains will be eroded by increased wages, higher input costs, excessive marketing costs (travel to customers) and lower productivity. The household cost of living crunch will be felt through businesses.</p>
<p>"Although there has been some consistency, many import orders are arriving all at once leaving no space to store and return containers, resulting in added charges. This also means companies are holding higher stock balances and making large payments at once given multiple orders are arriving together. Warehouse space is now stretched as the backlog of orders land. There could be a sting in the tail for some time yet.</p>
<p>"Throughout 2023 and beyond, global growth is set to slow, so we expect to see export prices and demand come under further pressure this year. China won't be the silver bullet we hope for, but will rebound following on from the end of the zero-COVID policy. Growth is set to slow in the US, Europe, Australia and other parts of Asia," said Mr Gestro.</p>
<p><a href="/content/asb/documents/en/documents/economic-research/economic-note/trade-disruptions-update-march-2023.html">Read the 10 predictions and the full report here.</a></p>
<p>Looking to expand internationally or import goods to New Zealand? Talk to your Relationship Manager, or email <a href="mailto:InternationalTrade@asb.co.nz">InternationalTrade@asb.co.nz</a> about your business and what you need help with, and our team will get in touch. </p>
<p>Or, to stay up to date with all of the shifts and balances in trade, you can subscribe for ASB's regular economic reports and updates <a href="/content/asb/contact-us/en/contact-us/register-for-email-reports.html">here</a>.</p>